U.S. Industrial Commercial Real Estate in 2025: Tariffs, Supply Chains, and New Dynamics
Late last year, many were predicting a new growth cycle for the U.S. Industrial Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market. For example, in December when CBRE published its 2025 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook, they predicted that the U.S. industrial market would enter a new cycle in 2025 with a return to pre-pandemic demand drivers. They said industrial occupiers would start focusing on longer-term strategies to improve warehouse efficiency and ensure supply chain resiliency. And that demand for newly constructed space would drive up the vacancy rate of older buildings. At that time, few anticipated the level of uncertainty that would ensue in the wake of changing U.S. economic and trade policies.
As of May 2025, the U.S. and China had paused their retaliatory tariffs for 90-days, leaving a 30% levy that the U.S. is now imposing on Chinese goods. However, businesses and investors must contend with uncertainty about whether the truce will last. But this situation is only part of a broader scenario in which dozens of other countries await news from the White House regarding revised tariff rates that will follow the current 90-day pause.
The result is already reshaping the global supply chain and logistic networks, starting with the slowing flow of goods into the U.S. The Port of Los Angeles, for instance, has seen a 35% drop in arriving cargo vessels as of the 2nd week in May 2025 vs. the same week a year earlier.
The disruption goes beyond the here and now; the inability to plan into the months ahead makes the situation at the ports a guessing game for labor and planning, including the scheduling of dockworkers, heavy equipment operators, and trucking services. According to Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, “As far as forecasting, with the whipsaw effect of information that’s been coming out of Washington — the reprieve of 90 days, the changes with electronics and auto parts, and maybe some retail in the middle of that — it’s really hard to forecast.”
As disruptions trigger a ripple effect across industries worldwide, the global supply chain is positioning itself for major transformation. With markets in flux, the National Association for Industrial and Office Parks (NAIOP) reports that many companies are pausing investment and deferring major decisions, including whether and where to lease industrial space.
At this point, experienced CRE industry professionals must rely on their knowledge — guided by the cyclical history of CRE, day-by-day data analysis, the latest intelligence, and some instinct. Let’s take a look at just some of the ways this may all unfold — and what it could mean specifically for industrial CRE.
Industrial Leasing and Tenant Demand
The industrial leasing market has been steady but cautious as tenants digest the tariff news. Key leasing trends include:
- Lease renewal over expansion — Many companies have delayed new warehouse expansions or relocations, opting instead to renew existing space until tariff outcomes are clear. CBRE recently reported that industrial construction slowed while industrial leasing held steady at about 180M square feet in Q1 of 2025.
- Rise of third-party logistics (3PL) demand — Amid trade policy uncertainty, CBRE sees some industrial occupiers outsourcing to 3PL providers. As more businesses rely on them, these providers will, in turn, take on a larger share of leasing activity.
- Vacancy tick-up — Even with solid leasing deals, overall vacancy has crept upward — due in part to new supply hitting the market. CBRE reported a 20 basis-point rise in national vacancy to about 6.3% in Q1 2025 — the highest level since 2014. Potentially slower economic growth would also weaken fundamentals across property types, leading to higher vacancy rates, and be a headwind for investment activity. However, this may be partially offset by lower long-term interest rates and cheaper debt costs.
- Modest net absorption — With some tenants on hold, net absorption is subdued. For example, CBRE cites just 23.3 million square foot of positive net absorption in Q1 2025, which is modest compared to earlier peaks.
In summary, leasing activity so far in 2025 is underpinned by tentative demand: occupiers are holding off on major expansions, while 3PLs and domestic distributors lead tenant activity in the interim.
Construction Activity and Costs
Tariffs are also crimping the development pipeline and construction budgets for Industrial, with the result being a rise in material prices and project delays:
- Higher material costs — New levies on steel, lumber, equipment and other inputs will increase construction expenses. CBRE estimates that the tariffs announced in April 2025 could inflate overall commercial construction costs by roughly 5%.
- Projects on hold and a shrinking pipeline — Faced with cost uncertainty, many developers are pausing or scaling back new projects. Groundbreaking of some developments may be put off as builders re-evaluate feasibility under higher-cost scenarios. JLL notes that U.S. industrial projects under construction totaled about 253 million square foot by Q1 — roughly 30% less than a year earlier and the lowest pipeline level since 2015. According to CBRE, in Q1 alone just 64.6M square foot of new industrial space was completed, the weakest quarterly delivery tally since 2018. In many markets, construction starts are near decade-lows as speculative projects are deferred.
- Supply chain delays — Tariffs and trade disruptions are also affecting the supply chain for construction itself. The NAIOP Research Foundation notes that companies are carrying higher inventories of building materials to buffer tariffs, but near-term shortages or shipping delays appear possible. For example, surcharges on Chinese-built ships and other fees have effectively reduced freight capacity to U.S. ports, which could slow shipments of steel and equipment and delay project timelines.
Overall, industrial remains the strongest corner of the market. The consensus is that industrial and multifamily will lead any recovery in investment activity. However, many are factoring in a premium for uncertainty; one recent summary noted that tariffs were already “reducing the strength” of CBRE’s incoming business pipeline. In practice, transaction volumes have slowed slightly in Q1-Q2 as buyers and sellers price in trade risk. Still, global allocators with limited U.S. exposure are actively looking to enter the industrial sector.
Outlook: Reshoring and Opportunities
Ecommerce and manufacturing reshoring continues to underpin demand for warehouses and factories. Key drivers for this rebound include:
- Reshoring of manufacturing — A number of companies are moving production back to North America to avoid high tariffs and improve supply resilience. New factory and processing facility needs (like semiconductors, electric vehicles [EVs]), pharma and food processing) will drive fresh demand for industrial land and buildings.
- Nearshoring and trade deals — Even before the 2025 tariffs, firms were planning to source more regionally. A 2023 Accenture study found that by 2026 about 65% of companies intend to buy key inputs from regional suppliers, a significant increase from the current 38%. This shift reflects a broader trend of companies seeking to become more resilient to supply chain disruptions by diversifying their sourcing and production.
- Technological and Green transformations — With competition growing in industrial CRE, some landlords are repositioning assets with sustainability upgrades or flexible layouts. Energy-efficient space that provides automation, robotics, etc., remains attractive to cautious tenants during economic uncertainty.
Conclusion
The current uncertainty around tariffs has produced some challenges for industrial CRE — the possibilities of slow leasing growth, combined with rising construction costs, is adding risk to underwriting. However, there may still be reason for optimism. When the tariff situation is resolved, the underlying fundamentals — low vacancy in core regions, rising regional manufacturing, and e-commerce growth — are likely to lead to growth in the industrial market.
— TRENDING ARTICLES
In Case You Missed It











